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Case Problem:  Capital State University Game-Day Magazines
Page 783 (use data file magazinesCSU.xlsx attached below)

Managerial Report 

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Use the concepts you have learned from Chapters 2, 3, 7, and 11 to write a study document  that will help Kris analyze football magazine sales in Years 1 through 9 to determine an order amount for Year 10.

Address items 1-3 and explain in detail how you developed your solution and why you think your analysis is accurate using the concepts and tools you learned throughout this course:

  1. There is a considerable amount of data available in the file Magazines CSU, but not all of it may be useful for your purposes here. Are there variables contained in the file Magazines CSU that you would exclude from a forecast model to determine football magazine sales in Year 10? If so, why? Are there particular observations of football magazine sales from previous years that you would exclude from your forecasting model? If so, why?
  2. Based on the data in the file Magazines CSU, develop a regression model to forecast the average sales of football magazines for each of the seven home games in the upcoming season (Year 10). That is, you should construct a single regression model and use it to estimate the average demand for the seven home games in Year 10. In addition to the variables provided, you may create new variables based on these variables or based on observations of your analysis. Be sure to provide a thorough analysis of your final model (residual diagnostics) and provide assessments of its accuracy. What insights are available based on your regression model?
  3. Use the forecasting model developed in Part 2 to create a simulation model that Kris can use to estimate the total football magazine sales amounts in Year 10. Your simulation model should have seven uncertain inputs: one input for football magazine sales at each CSU game in Year 10. Then you should sum these sales amounts for each individual game to create a total football magazine sales amount for Year 10.

Submit a .doc/.pdf for the final report and attach the .xlsx file you used for developing the model/simulation.

Data

Magazine Sales (Units)YearWeek In SeasonOpponent Preseason RankPreseason Ticket SalesTotal Game AttendanceCSU Preseason RankHome Game NumberConference Game (1 = Yes; 0 = No)Homecoming (1 = Yes; 0 = No)Game Day WeatherKickoff TemperatureOpponent’s Previous Season Number of WinsOpponent’s Previous Season Number of LossesCSU’s Previous Season Number of WinsCSU’s Previous Season Number of LossesNotes
Cedar Falls University4,1651212047,42066,32521100Sunny7012293
Oklahoma A&M3,746135847,42064,89321200Rain604793
Urbana College4,943156747,42070,39721310Sunny682993
University of Bloomington2,366198347,42069,18521411Rain423893
Indiana A&M1,7961107447,42070,39721510Cloudy463893
Minneapolis State University1,9791136847,42064,59121610Cloudy354793
Mt Pleasant College3,8662110946,19858,92057100Sunny822975
University of Ames5,194229946,19870,39757200Sunny8811075
Ann Arbor University1,90925646,19870,39757310Rain5212075
Evanston University2,523265546,19870,39757411Sunny625775
Madison University2,734281746,19870,39757510Sunny638575
Columbus University2,034211346,19869,47357610Sunny6110375
Lincoln University6,46331644,21170,30073100Sunny909438
DeKalb College3,128339944,21163,50073200Sunny782938
Pennsylvania A&M2,97236144,21166,73473310Sunny709338
University of Bloomington2,158386844,21163,77773411Sunny404738
Urbana College2,1203107844,21161,35073510Sunny653838
Minneapolis State University1,4343123844,21155,39873610Sunny405638
University of Kalamazoo2,691428337,85155,65071100Sunny8575110
University of Ames3,202437937,85170,39771200Sunny7547110
Michigan A&M1,669462437,85163,29071311Sunny30102110
Columbus University2,194481537,85160,49571410Cloudy6566110
Madison University1,53649437,85162,56071510Cloudy45102110
Evanston University7634119437,85154,34571610Cloudy3338110
Ohio A&M3,0595110940,54956,09176100Sunny6911039
Northern Cincinnati University2,390527940,54958,29176200Cloudy686539
Pennsylvania A&M3,056553940,54969,44276311Cloudy555739
University of Bloomington2,298589340,54968,29576410Sunny653839
Ann Arbor University2,956591740,54970,39776510Sunny439339
Minneapolis State University2,3245125940,54965,49176610Sunny606639
LBJ University2,885618441,36251,49546100Sunny856575
University of Ames3,677635241,36270,39746200Cloudy777575
University of Logan1,9116411441,36254,21146300Sunny684775
Indiana A&M2,404662241,36268,24946411Cloudy606675
Michigan A&M2,113672341,36269,02146510Rain557575
Madison University2,3456103241,36270,39746610Sunny305775
Evanston University1,9696116941,36265,18446710Sunny504775
Northern Cincinnati University3,634716842,84354,12831100Sunny7275112
Western New York University2,5007211742,84354,47131200Sunny75111112
University of Tempe2,810742942,84370,39731300Sunny7086112
Ann Arbor University3,961761642,84370,39731411Sunny65103112
Pennsylvania A&M2,440794442,84370,39731510Cloudy4594112
Urbana College2,0177104542,84370,39731610Sunny5057112
Minneapolis State University2,1737122642,84370,39731710Cloudy4285112
Ohio A&M4,382819547,03570,39719100Sunny8557103*CSU Throwback Jersey Game that greatly increased final game attendance
University of Ames4,037827747,03570,39719200Sunny82210103
Michigan A&M2,930853747,03570,39719311Sunny6285103
Columbus University2,757871147,03570,39719410Cloudy42112103
Indiana A&M2,6788103247,03570,39719510Sunny6894103
Madison University2,4458121547,03570,39719610Cloudy4076103
Letterman University2,9859111154,58470,58519100Sunny8229102
Cedar Falls University2,8009312054,58470,58511200Sunny8274102
Urbana College2,910956954,58470,58511311Sunny8238102
University of Bloomington2,500978654,58470,58511410Sunny7338102
Ann Arbor University3,72198754,58470,58511510Sunny6593102
Minneapolis State University2,5009122354,58470,58511610Sunny4675102
University of Missoula10112054,584161008475
University of Ames1034654,584162007575
Columbus University105454,5841631010275
Indiana A&M1063054,584164115675
DeKalb College1095654,584165007575
Evanston University10106554,584166107575
Madison University10114754,58416710

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