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Assignment 4.1 

Objective: Understand and explain the principles of the quantitative and qualitative research process, and how it could be effectively used in program evaluation

Program Outcome: Create a community of students committed to serving the public interest.

Core Competency: To participate in and contribute to the public policy process.

Based on your reading, consider the case below. Chapter 6 provides SSRD discussions; Chapter 9 discusses threats to internal validity, and Chapter 11 discusses reliability issues).

Report on the case using guidance from box 6.2, page 187; the report is a single system evaluation study. The report needs to include a line graph that reports the data (you will need to use Excel to construct the line graph). In the accompanying paper, make sure to report on any efforts you would make to improve or check the reliability of the data you obtain. Previous students have suggested this link to help with Excel:

Construct Time series graph using Excel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W56_YiX6OfM

When constructing your graph, make sure to label the vertical and horizontal data properly.

Evidenced based research to support the report is required.

Reports, citations, and references should be in APA format. Graphs or charts are added to the report and titled properly. Consult the APA manual or use  https://owl.english.purdue.edu/owl/resource/560/01/  as help in creating your report. You should only submit one paper with the report and graphs properly included. 

National Speed Limit Case Analysis

In 1974, the United States instituted a national speed limit of 55 miles per hour (mph), a move that generated a great deal of controversy. Proponents of the lower speed limit managed to avoid repeal of this national speed limit for over two decades by effectively arguing that driving at 55 mph significantly reduced the number of traffic fatalities on U.S. highways. The argument was based on the fact that the total number of traffic fatalities dropped from 55,511 in 1973 to only 46,402 in 1974. People have questioned the validity of this argument that the reduction in fatalities was due to the institution of the 55 mph speed limit.  You will also be include looking at the impact of the 55mph speed limit repeal in 1996 (although it took several years for the repeal to be implemented nation-wide).  There is more information available on this as shown below.

Since the change to a 55 mph speed limit occurred a number of years ago, you can use archival data in your study. The U. S. government routinely makes available a wide variety of data on the U.S. population. Most public and private libraries either own or would be able to get the national or state statistics you need.

Table 1: Annual Traffic Fatalities on U.S. Highways

Year      Number of fatalities

1966      53,041 1967      52,924 1968      55,200 1969      55,791 1970      54,633 1971      52,660 1972      56,278 1973      55,511 1974      46,402 1975      45,853 1976      47,038 1977      49,510 1978      50,226

Source: U.S. National Center for Health Statistics, Vital Statistics of the United States, annual.

Tables 2-4 (removal of the intervention)–We also have data to assess fatalities after removal of the intervention!

Year (Column 1); Fatal Crashes (Column 2); Fatalities per 100 Million Vehicle Miles Traveled (Column 3); Fatalities per 100,000 Population (Column 4)  

Column 1    Column 2     Column 3    Column 4                                                                                                                                                  

1994            34,439          1.18            11.59 1995            32,539          1.15            11.06 1996            30,056          1.08            10.28 1997            30,202          1.1               10.4 1998            31,006          1.14             10.76 1999            29,867          1.1               10.42 2000            30,296          1.11             10.67 2001            30,862          1.15              11.05 2002            34,172          1.26              12.31 2003            37,435          1.36              13.7 2004            38,648          1.42              14.31 2005            39,252          1.46              14.72 2006            38,444          1.44              14.63 2007            38,477          1.48              14.78 2008            38,491          1.51              14.95 2009            37,862          1.51              14.81 2010            37,526          1.53              14.87 2011            37,140          1.55               15.3 2012            37,107          1.58               15.36 2013            37,324          1.65               15.69 2014            37,494          1.69               15.86 2015            37,241          1.73               15.91 2016            36,254          1.7                 15.64 Source: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration: Federal Analysis Reporting System *FARS) Encyclopedia

Your professional report should include: • Background on the setting and goals of the intervention and the removal of the intervention. • The purpose of the evaluation. • Describe the outcomes measures and what may be reliability and validity problems. • Describe the type of single system design used. • Describe the intervention used/intervention removed. (A-B-A) • Analyze the inferences from the data. • Conclude with limitations or weaknesses in the study and if you believe the intervention created the outcome.

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