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6ECON006W: Forecasting for Managers

Coursework (100%)

HBAT: Understanding Customers1

HBAT (Hair, Block, Anderson and Tatham Company) sells paper products to two market segments: the newsprint industry and the magazine industry. Further, these paper products are sold to these market segments, either directly to the customer or indirectly through a broker. HBAT wanted to develop a better understanding of both the characteristics of its customers and the relationships between their perceptions of HBAT, and their actions towards HBAT (e.g., satisfaction and likelihood to recommend). From this understanding of its customers, HBAT will be in a good position to develop its Forecasting plan for the next year.

To develop this level of understanding of its situation, a survey of existing customers of HBAT was conducted through an established marketing research firm. Three types of information were collected in a survey of 200 purchasing managers from firms buying from HBAT. A first type of data reflects the characteristics of the respondent and includes information such as the size of the customer and length of the purchase relationship. The second type of information was perceptions of HBAT’s performance on 13 attributes. These attributes (developed through focus groups, a pre-test, and used in previous studies) are considered to be the most influential in the selection of suppliers in the paper industry. The third type of information relates to purchase outcomes and business relationships (e.g., satisfaction with HBAT and whether the firm would consider a strategic alliance / partnership with HBAT).

The data are available in the HBAT DATA.xls file on Blackboard and a definition of each variable and an explanation of its coding are given in Appendix 1. Please assume the sample of 200 respondents is representative of HBAT’s customers.

In addition, management at HBAT have provided you with sales data from 2010 to 2018 on a monthly basis. Please see Table 1;

Table 1. HBAT sales (in £000s)

Month201020112012201320142015201620172018
January139.7165.1177.8228.6266.7431.8381431.8495.3
February114.3177.8203.2254317.5457.2406.4444.5533.4
March101.6177.8228.6266.7368.3457.2431.8495.3635
April152.4203.2279.4342.9431.8482.6457.2533.4673.1
May215.9241.3317.5355.6457.2533.4495.3558.8749.3
June228.6279.4330.2406.4571.5622.3584.2647.7812.8
July215.9292.1368.3444.5546.1660.4609.6673.1800.1
August190.5317.5355.6431.8482.6520.7558.8660.4736.6
September177.8203.2241.3330.2431.8508508609.6685.8
October139.7177.8215.9330.2406.4482.6495.3584.2635
November139.7165.1215.9304.8393.7457.2444.5520.7622.3
December152.4177.8203.2292.1406.4431.8419.1482.6622.3

The Tasks

Please write a report, of no more than 3,000 words, to the management of HBAT addressing the following issues:

Part (a) -Forecasting comparison practice

· Describe the historical data on HBAT sales, including a discussion of the general direction of sales and any seasonal tendencies that might be occurring.

· Choose, giving your justification, which time series forecasting techniques are appropriate for producing forecasts with this data set. Compare the models based on ex post forecasts. Use your chosen forecasting model to generate forecasts for each of the months in year 2019.

· Discuss how these forecasts might be integrated into the planning operations and policy required by management at HBAT.

Part (b) -Regression Analysis

· Develop model/s to predict satisfaction from the perceptions of the performance variables. What are the most influential performance variables?

· Make a recommendation to HBAT that enhances their understanding of their customers so that the management can develop its marketing plan that will feed into their Forecasting Plan for the next year.

The Report and supporting appendices, if any, should be combined into one document, which must be submitted

by 13:00 on 28th April 2021 via Blackboard only. It will automatically be scanned through a text matching system (designed to check for possible plagiarism). YOU MUST include the title of the report and word count on the first page of your assignment.

1Adapted from Hair, Joseph F. Jr., William C. Black, Barry J. Babin, and Rolph E. Anderson, Multivariate Data Analysis,

International Edition, 7th Edition, Pearson Higher Education.

APPENDIX 1

Questionnaire Details

Customer Characteristics

The five characteristics of the responding firms reflect the basic characteristics and their business relationship with HBAT. The five variables are as follows:

VariableNameDefinitionCoding
X1Customer DurationLength of time a particular customer has been buying from HBAT1 = Less than 1 year;2 = Between 1 and 5 years;3 = Longer than 5 years
X2Customer TypeType of industry that purchases HBAT’s paper products0 = Magazine;1 = Newsprint
X3Customer SizeBased on number of employees0 = Small firm, < 500 employees;1 = Large firm, ≥ 500 employees
X4Customer RegionCustomer location0 = EU;1 = Outside EU
X5Distribution SystemSales and services are provided through this distribution system0 = Indirectly through a broker; 1 = Directly through salesforce

Perceptions of HBAT’s Performance

Each of these variables was measured on a graphic rating scale, where a ten-centimetre line was drawn between the endpoints, labelled “Poor” and “Excellent”. Respondents indicated their perceptions by placing a mark anywhere on the line. The mark was then measured and the distance from zero (in centimetres) was recorded. The result was a scale ranging from zero to ten, rounded to a single decimal place. The thirteen attributes rated by each respondent are as follows:

VariableNameDefinition
X6Product QualityPerceived level of quality of HBAT’s paper products
X7E-Commerce Activities/WebsiteOverall image of HBAT’s website, especially its user-friendliness
X8Technical SupportExtent to which technical support is offered to help solve product/service issues
X9Complaint ResolutionExtent to which any complaints are resolved in a timely and complete manner
X10AdvertisingPerceptions of HBAT’s advertising campaign in all types of media
X11Product LineDepth and breadth of HBAT’s product line to meet customer needs
X12Salesforce ImageOverall image of HBAT’s salesforce
X13Competitive PricingExtent to which HBAT offers competitive prices
X14Warranty & ClaimsExtent to which HBAT stands behind its product/service warranties and claims
X15New ProductsExtent to which HBAT develops and sells new products
X16Ordering & BillingPerception that ordering and billing is handled efficiently and correctly
X17Price FlexibilityPerceived willingness of HBAT sales representatives to negotiate price on purchases of paper products
X18Delivery SpeedAmount of time it takes to deliver the paper products once an order has been confirmed

Purchase Outcomes & Relationship

The first four variables below are measured on a graphic rating scale, where a ten-centimetre line was drawn between the endpoints, labelled as indicated in the coding column. Respondents indicated their perceptions by placing a mark anywhere on the line. The mark was then measured and the distance from zero (in centimetres) was recorded. The result was a scale ranging from zero to ten, rounded to a single decimal place. Five specific measures were obtained that reflected the outcomes of the respondent’s purchase relationships with HBAT. These measures include:

VariableNameDefinitionCoding
X19SatisfactionCustomer satisfaction with past purchases from HBAT0 – 10 graphic scale, where ‘0’ indicates “Not at All” and ‘10’ indicates “Completely Satisfied”
X20Likely to RecommendLikelihood of recommending HBAT to other firms as a supplier of paper products0 – 10 graphic scale, where ‘0’ indicates “Not at All Likely” and ‘10’ indicates “Definitely”
X21Likely to PurchaseLikelihood of purchasing paper products from HBAT in the future0 – 10 graphic scale, where ‘0’ indicates “Not at All Likely” and ‘10’ indicates “Definitely”
X22Purchase LevelPercentage of the responding firm’s paper needs purchased from HBATMeasured on a 100-point percentage scale
X23Consider Strategic AllianceExtent to which the customer/respondent perceives his or her firm would engage in strategic alliance/partnership with HBAT0 = No, would not consider; 1 = Yes, would consider

HBAT Data

idx1x2x3x4x5x6x7x8x9x10x11x12x13x14x15x16x17x18x19x20x21x22x23
1201118.53.92.55.94.84.96.06.84.74.35.05.13.78.28.08.465.11
2310008.22.75.17.23.47.93.15.35.54.03.94.34.95.76.57.567.10
3301119.23.45.65.65.47.45.84.56.24.65.44.04.58.98.49.072.11
4111106.43.37.03.74.74.74.58.87.03.64.34.13.04.86.07.240.10
5201019.03.45.24.62.26.04.56.86.14.54.53.53.57.16.69.057.10
6110106.52.83.14.14.04.33.78.55.19.53.64.73.34.76.36.150.10
7111106.93.75.02.62.12.35.48.94.82.52.14.22.05.77.87.241.10
8201106.23.33.94.84.63.65.16.95.44.84.36.33.76.35.87.756.10
9211105.83.65.16.73.75.95.89.35.94.44.46.14.67.07.58.256.11
10101106.44.55.16.14.75.75.78.45.45.34.15.84.45.55.96.759.10
11301018.73.24.64.82.76.84.66.85.87.53.83.74.07.47.08.468.10
12101106.14.96.33.94.43.96.48.25.85.93.04.93.26.06.36.653.10
13110019.55.64.66.95.06.96.67.66.55.35.14.54.48.48.47.958.11
14310019.23.95.75.52.48.44.87.16.73.04.52.64.27.66.98.272.11
15201116.34.54.76.94.56.85.98.86.05.44.86.25.28.07.07.662.11
16300008.73.24.06.83.27.83.84.96.15.04.33.94.56.66.47.171.10
17210115.74.06.76.03.35.55.16.26.75.44.26.24.56.47.57.250.11
18201105.94.15.57.23.56.45.58.46.26.35.75.84.87.46.98.258.11
19211105.63.45.16.43.75.75.69.15.46.15.06.04.56.87.57.955.10
20301109.14.53.66.45.35.37.18.45.86.74.56.14.47.68.58.867.11
21100105.23.87.15.23.94.35.08.47.14.63.34.93.35.45.57.050.10
22311119.65.76.85.95.48.37.84.56.46.54.33.04.39.99.69.970.11
23200018.63.67.45.13.57.34.73.76.76.04.83.44.07.07.18.160.10
24301119.32.42.67.22.27.24.56.26.44.26.74.44.58.68.18.065.11
25100106.04.15.34.73.55.35.38.06.53.94.75.34.04.84.95.555.10
26201106.43.66.66.14.03.95.37.16.13.75.66.63.96.66.87.058.10
27300008.53.07.25.84.17.63.74.86.96.75.33.84.46.37.17.070.10
28110107.03.35.45.52.64.84.29.06.55.94.35.23.75.45.55.655.10
29300008.53.05.76.02.37.63.74.85.86.05.73.84.46.36.97.270.10
30111107.63.63.04.05.14.24.67.74.97.24.75.53.55.45.56.252.10
31110016.93.48.54.34.56.44.75.27.73.33.72.73.36.16.87.144.10
32101108.12.57.24.52.35.13.86.66.86.13.03.53.06.45.86.251.10
33111106.73.76.55.35.35.14.99.25.74.23.54.53.45.46.57.644.10
34211108.03.36.15.75.54.64.78.75.93.84.76.64.27.37.59.062.11
35101106.74.05.23.93.05.46.88.46.26.02.54.33.56.36.66.754.10
36100008.73.26.14.33.56.12.95.66.16.53.12.92.55.44.67.151.10
37200019.03.45.94.63.96.04.56.86.44.33.93.53.57.18.07.257.10
38301119.64.16.27.32.97.75.57.76.14.45.24.64.98.79.99.977.11
39211108.23.63.96.25.84.95.09.05.27.14.76.94.57.66.97.665.11
40100106.14.93.04.85.13.96.48.25.16.84.54.93.26.05.55.853.10
41211108.33.43.35.53.14.65.29.14.11.74.65.83.97.07.58.461.11
42210019.43.84.75.43.86.54.98.54.96.24.14.54.17.68.07.961.11
43301019.35.14.66.85.86.66.37.45.14.14.64.64.38.97.87.672.11
44211115.15.16.66.94.45.47.85.97.25.24.96.34.57.67.98.455.11
45310008.02.54.77.13.67.73.05.25.13.94.34.24.75.55.66.565.10
46201105.94.15.75.95.86.45.58.46.45.15.25.84.87.48.67.758.11
473100110.04.37.16.32.95.44.53.86.73.75.04.03.57.18.88.067.11
48211105.73.86.87.55.75.76.08.26.64.86.57.35.27.67.67.160.10
49300119.93.73.76.14.27.06.76.85.97.24.53.43.98.78.18.567.11
50311017.93.94.35.84.46.95.84.75.23.64.14.24.38.67.87.661.11
51101106.73.65.94.23.44.74.87.25.75.34.03.62.85.47.57.248.10
52310008.22.73.77.42.77.93.15.35.35.04.54.34.95.77.18.267.11
53301119.42.54.86.13.27.34.66.36.39.24.74.64.68.79.09.066.11
54110016.93.45.74.43.36.44.75.26.44.43.22.73.36.17.07.244.10
55211108.03.33.85.83.24.64.78.75.34.24.96.64.27.38.18.162.11
56310009.33.87.35.73.76.45.57.46.65.94.13.23.47.77.68.959.11
57201117.45.14.87.74.57.26.99.66.47.45.76.55.59.07.98.874.11
58310007.63.65.25.85.66.65.44.46.76.44.63.94.08.27.57.558.11
593100010.04.35.33.74.25.44.53.86.74.53.74.03.57.16.57.067.10
60311109.92.87.26.92.65.83.55.46.27.05.64.94.07.98.58.561.11
61300008.73.28.46.12.87.83.84.97.24.55.43.94.56.66.97.271.11
62201118.43.86.75.04.54.75.96.75.14.22.75.03.68.07.68.863.11
63100018.83.93.85.14.34.74.85.85.07.24.43.72.96.35.58.044.10
64101107.72.26.34.52.44.73.46.26.04.73.33.12.66.06.08.147.10
65101106.63.65.84.14.94.74.87.26.53.93.53.62.85.46.97.148.10
66211105.73.83.56.75.45.76.08.25.45.04.77.35.27.66.99.060.11
67210105.74.07.96.42.75.55.16.27.56.45.06.24.56.45.66.250.10
68210115.53.74.75.44.35.34.96.05.62.54.55.94.36.16.38.248.10
69111107.53.53.83.52.94.14.57.65.15.24.05.43.45.25.85.851.10
70201106.43.62.75.33.93.95.37.15.25.54.76.63.96.66.68.058.11
71300109.14.56.15.96.35.37.18.47.15.75.46.14.47.67.57.767.10
72110016.73.23.03.74.86.34.55.05.22.52.92.63.15.86.07.043.10
73201106.54.32.76.66.56.36.08.74.76.34.65.64.67.96.67.966.10
74301119.93.77.54.75.67.06.76.87.24.64.13.43.98.68.89.866.11
75201118.53.95.35.55.04.96.06.85.73.64.45.13.78.27.08.465.11
76300009.93.06.85.05.45.94.84.97.37.63.14.33.87.16.68.963.11
77100117.63.67.64.64.74.65.07.48.16.64.55.83.96.46.97.549.10
78210019.43.87.06.24.76.54.98.57.32.44.34.54.17.67.38.061.11
79300019.33.56.37.65.57.55.94.66.63.15.24.14.68.97.38.172.11
80111107.13.44.94.14.05.05.97.86.13.52.63.12.75.75.87.644.10
81301009.93.07.44.84.05.94.84.95.96.93.24.33.87.17.98.863.10
82300008.73.26.44.92.46.84.66.86.35.14.33.74.07.47.38.068.11
83200018.62.95.83.92.95.64.06.36.14.02.73.03.06.66.18.553.10
84110106.43.26.73.62.22.95.08.47.36.52.03.71.65.05.16.537.10
85200017.72.66.76.61.97.24.35.96.54.14.73.94.38.27.57.752.11
86111107.53.54.14.53.54.14.57.64.92.83.45.43.45.26.07.251.10
87100105.03.61.33.03.54.24.98.24.37.62.44.83.15.25.56.048.10
88200017.72.68.06.73.57.24.35.96.97.75.13.94.38.27.68.252.10
89210019.13.65.55.44.26.24.68.36.54.14.64.33.97.36.57.459.10
90210115.55.57.77.05.65.78.26.37.44.95.56.74.98.27.69.359.11
91310009.13.77.04.14.46.35.47.37.54.64.43.03.37.47.97.958.11
92110107.14.24.12.62.13.34.59.95.53.52.04.02.44.85.06.551.10
93311019.23.94.65.34.28.44.87.16.26.64.42.64.27.67.58.672.10
94301119.33.55.47.84.67.55.94.66.44.94.84.14.68.97.68.972.11
95311009.33.84.04.64.76.45.57.45.34.83.63.23.47.77.38.459.11
96110018.64.85.65.32.36.05.76.75.83.64.93.63.67.38.18.150.11
97100117.43.42.65.04.14.44.87.24.56.44.25.63.76.35.57.248.10
98100018.73.23.33.23.16.12.95.65.04.33.12.92.55.47.07.751.10
99210117.84.95.85.35.25.37.17.96.05.74.34.93.96.47.17.461.10
100211107.93.04.45.15.94.24.89.75.75.83.45.43.56.47.37.057.10
101111107.63.64.84.93.44.24.67.76.15.13.15.53.55.45.56.152.10
102300119.25.06.55.25.26.56.27.36.88.65.14.64.28.79.17.171.11
103210117.74.74.74.75.25.27.07.75.95.44.04.73.76.17.07.659.11
104111019.55.60.45.55.66.96.67.63.84.45.64.54.48.49.49.058.11
105201106.54.35.06.84.76.36.08.76.16.95.05.64.67.98.48.966.11
106211108.33.42.85.93.44.65.29.15.85.24.25.83.97.07.07.561.10
107301019.64.15.56.54.87.75.57.76.95.54.44.64.98.77.69.377.11
108211105.94.06.88.76.05.96.28.46.35.35.87.55.47.97.98.062.10
109200018.73.71.55.54.67.44.83.83.95.74.63.54.27.17.37.661.10
110110006.73.23.45.52.36.34.55.05.46.53.82.63.15.85.37.143.10
111310019.75.05.57.13.47.56.16.76.95.23.73.44.18.47.18.166.10
112310018.83.56.76.63.38.14.56.77.22.74.02.33.97.16.37.969.10
113211108.23.68.95.24.54.95.09.07.84.34.56.94.57.68.37.265.11
114301118.94.34.85.66.35.16.98.25.66.74.25.94.27.37.07.765.10
115201118.43.88.64.93.24.75.96.77.96.64.05.03.68.08.87.963.11
116210117.74.74.15.44.35.27.07.75.37.45.14.73.76.16.96.959.10
117301119.25.05.96.44.96.56.27.36.78.94.24.64.28.78.09.571.11
118111107.33.64.54.15.45.26.18.05.43.72.83.32.95.86.47.546.10
119101019.04.15.34.23.04.85.06.05.74.93.33.93.16.48.58.045.11
120101108.12.53.23.94.15.13.86.65.46.22.63.53.06.45.97.151.10
121201117.45.15.08.35.07.26.99.66.34.35.76.55.59.07.58.874.11
122211107.93.05.56.24.34.24.89.75.54.64.85.43.56.46.58.057.10
123101107.72.26.83.42.44.73.46.26.74.33.23.12.66.06.47.747.10
124301119.42.56.47.03.27.34.66.36.55.45.84.64.68.77.98.266.11
125111107.24.34.14.23.93.44.710.05.53.63.24.12.55.06.16.552.10
126200018.33.74.94.05.36.16.15.35.87.44.12.93.17.48.08.154.11
127310007.93.94.16.64.96.95.84.76.06.74.64.24.38.66.58.161.11
128111107.33.68.54.03.65.26.18.07.32.93.33.32.95.86.06.946.10
129311119.65.76.16.25.68.27.84.57.14.84.43.04.39.88.19.370.11
130100008.32.84.82.63.05.72.55.25.42.81.22.52.14.85.06.247.10
131200018.63.67.56.12.97.34.73.77.35.25.03.44.07.06.98.060.11
132310008.02.53.96.93.47.73.05.25.46.84.64.24.75.55.67.165.10
133110106.43.24.31.52.22.95.08.46.07.02.43.71.65.05.16.537.10
134101106.63.85.16.33.25.36.68.26.42.94.34.13.36.06.97.153.10
135201017.62.55.16.03.27.14.25.85.46.23.63.84.28.07.58.251.10
136310019.44.16.05.63.47.84.77.66.56.05.13.74.47.97.17.075.11
137100008.32.82.43.13.05.72.55.24.84.21.82.52.14.85.86.747.10
138210117.84.96.45.75.85.37.17.96.45.24.14.93.96.46.67.561.11
139111107.14.25.83.32.83.34.59.96.23.12.84.02.44.86.17.451.10
140100117.63.64.54.82.24.65.07.46.45.34.45.83.96.46.87.449.10
141211105.63.43.86.35.25.75.69.15.86.04.56.04.56.86.57.955.10
142311009.92.86.15.81.55.83.55.45.96.84.04.94.07.98.38.061.11
143301119.23.47.76.94.97.45.84.57.26.14.24.04.58.99.48.072.11
144310009.13.84.95.13.17.54.57.35.75.24.53.44.27.46.68.472.10
145310009.94.25.25.43.45.44.53.86.28.03.84.03.57.07.68.866.11
146310019.94.21.24.13.25.44.53.84.96.24.14.03.57.07.87.966.11
147100106.63.83.04.74.55.36.68.25.83.54.64.13.36.06.06.053.10
148310009.13.73.54.74.16.35.47.35.96.53.73.03.37.46.08.258.11
149211115.15.14.46.25.85.47.85.95.43.95.16.34.57.69.18.455.11
150101106.04.17.25.84.85.35.38.06.43.64.35.34.04.85.07.455.10
151300108.94.36.55.74.35.16.98.27.13.85.05.94.27.35.88.065.10
152201106.23.33.55.44.03.65.16.94.84.74.06.33.76.35.96.656.10
153110107.24.33.73.83.63.44.710.04.52.93.04.12.55.05.37.652.10
154310018.83.58.55.42.88.14.56.78.05.64.12.33.97.16.87.569.10
155101106.35.14.75.33.74.16.68.46.34.24.45.13.46.36.17.155.10
156300009.72.83.75.83.75.74.74.84.81.64.04.13.66.85.97.961.10
157101105.03.66.74.44.14.24.98.26.44.03.74.83.15.25.37.648.10
158100117.43.46.14.35.84.44.87.26.15.14.05.63.76.35.67.148.10
159210115.53.77.45.74.55.34.96.07.66.04.35.94.36.16.17.648.10
160210019.13.66.44.83.06.24.68.37.06.14.64.33.97.37.48.259.11
161110106.73.76.04.95.15.14.99.26.55.63.74.53.45.45.36.944.10
162201116.34.58.66.44.96.85.98.88.46.56.46.25.28.07.08.162.11
163200018.33.76.04.95.76.16.15.36.65.53.62.93.17.47.07.654.10
164200018.23.64.94.04.76.06.05.25.65.94.72.83.07.37.18.453.10
165200018.23.64.34.05.86.06.05.25.66.24.02.83.07.36.87.453.10
166100019.04.16.64.43.34.85.06.06.65.64.33.93.16.45.97.945.10
167111107.13.45.93.73.85.05.97.86.17.23.63.12.75.76.17.244.10
168111106.93.75.33.43.32.35.48.96.63.42.74.22.05.76.67.641.10
169200018.62.94.54.02.85.64.06.36.15.14.03.03.06.66.56.753.10
170101106.74.04.54.34.25.46.88.46.14.03.84.33.56.37.17.454.10
171111107.03.34.95.64.04.84.29.05.55.33.35.23.75.47.06.255.10
172310009.72.66.25.82.15.63.35.26.78.44.54.73.87.47.07.559.11
173300019.93.74.85.34.67.06.76.86.78.05.03.43.98.67.37.466.11
174110018.64.85.54.23.36.05.76.76.22.84.83.63.67.36.47.950.10
175101106.35.15.44.75.54.16.68.45.72.42.85.13.46.35.86.555.10
176301119.93.77.34.26.17.06.76.86.45.24.33.43.98.78.58.667.11
177301019.32.45.35.82.67.24.56.26.54.14.04.44.58.68.08.665.11
178311019.75.06.35.85.27.56.16.77.56.14.93.44.18.47.88.066.11
179310009.72.66.15.32.45.63.35.25.57.14.64.73.87.46.08.159.10
180311019.65.74.96.16.98.37.84.55.46.24.03.04.39.98.18.270.11
181200017.62.56.56.33.87.14.25.86.95.54.43.84.28.07.17.251.10
182310009.44.15.26.44.87.84.77.65.86.54.73.74.47.98.18.475.11
183311119.65.76.66.75.18.27.84.56.65.64.63.04.39.89.09.470.11
184301119.35.15.55.85.66.66.37.46.35.74.44.64.38.98.09.472.11
185300009.72.84.45.13.85.74.74.85.86.34.74.13.66.86.37.561.10
186310019.13.83.47.13.07.54.57.34.95.16.03.44.27.46.96.672.10
187110106.52.80.65.22.54.33.78.54.34.84.34.73.34.74.04.350.10
188101106.63.64.04.01.74.74.87.24.74.83.23.62.85.47.46.648.10
189211105.83.66.96.65.15.95.89.37.13.45.96.14.67.06.67.456.10
190200018.73.73.05.64.27.44.83.85.43.65.53.54.27.16.57.161.11
191100018.83.95.44.23.44.74.85.86.95.83.83.72.96.37.96.744.11
192101106.44.52.55.84.05.75.78.44.75.04.05.84.45.55.66.759.10
193100106.73.60.53.23.34.74.87.24.35.02.93.62.85.44.57.248.10
194101105.23.85.54.73.34.35.08.46.13.64.34.93.35.46.57.150.10
195110106.43.32.74.05.34.74.58.83.77.03.64.13.04.85.56.040.10
196311007.63.62.15.24.86.65.44.44.36.84.43.94.08.26.98.458.11
197211105.94.03.37.83.35.96.28.45.26.66.07.55.47.97.88.662.11
198311119.75.07.96.35.37.66.16.86.65.24.43.54.28.68.87.966.11
199211115.55.56.96.66.55.78.26.37.05.35.96.74.98.27.17.659.11
200310119.75.05.65.95.37.66.16.86.91.24.33.54.28.68.18.566.11

coding

VariableNameDefinitionCoding
X1Customer DurationLength of time a particular customer has been buying from HBAT1 = Less than 1 year;
2 = Between 1 and 5 years;
3 = Longer than 5 years
X2Customer TypeType of industry that purchases HBAT’s paper products0 = Magazine;
1 = Newsprint
X3Customer SizeBased on number of employees0 = Small firm, < 500 employees;
1 = Large firm, ≥ 500 employees
X4Customer RegionCustomer location0 = EU;
1 = Outside EU
X5Distribution SystemSales and services are provided through this distribution system0 = Indirectly through a broker; 1 = Directly through salesforce
X6Product QualityPerceived level of quality of HBAT’s paper products
X7E-Commerce Activities/WebsiteOverall image of HBAT’s website, especially its user-friendliness
X8Technical SupportExtent to which technical support is offered to help solve product/service issues
X9Complaint ResolutionExtent to which any complaints are resolved in a timely and complete manner
X10AdvertisingPerceptions of HBAT’s advertising campaign in all types of media
X11Product LineDepth and breadth of HBAT’s product line to meet customer needs
X12Salesforce ImageOverall image of HBAT’s salesforce
X13Competitive PricingExtent to which HBAT offers competitive prices
X14Warranty & ClaimsExtent to which HBAT stands behind its product/service warranties and claims
X15New ProductsExtent to which HBAT develops and sells new products
X16Ordering & BillingPerception that ordering and billing is handled efficiently and correctly
X17Price FlexibilityPerceived willingness of HBAT sales representatives to negotiate price on purchases of paper products
X18Delivery SpeedAmount of time it takes to deliver the paper products once an order has been confirmed
Customer satisfaction with past purchases from HBAT0 – 10 graphic scale, where ‘0’ indicates “Not at All” and ‘10’ indicates “Completely Satisfied”
X19Satisfaction
Likely to RecommendLikelihood of recommending HBAT to other firms as a supplier of paper products0 – 10 graphic scale, where ‘0’ indicates “Not at All Likely” and ‘10’ indicates “Definitely”
X20
Likelihood of purchasing paper products from HBAT in the future0 – 10 graphic scale, where ‘0’ indicates “Not at All Likely” and ‘10’ indicates “Definitely”
X21Likely to Purchase
Percentage of the responding firm’s paper needs purchased from HBATMeasured on a 100-point percentage scale
X22Purchase Level
Consider Strategic AllianceExtent to which the customer/respondent perceives his or her firm would engage in strategic alliance/partnership with HBAT0 = No, would not consider; 1 = Yes, would consider
X23

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Forecasting for Managers Coursework Marking scheme – (6ECON006W)

Dissertation: Marking & Feedback Sheet Marker:

Overall Comments:

Name (Student ID):Title:
Component:V Good (70%+)Good(60-69%)Average(50-59%)Poor(40-49%)V Poor(<40%)
Describe the historical data on HBAT sales, including a discussion of the general direction of sales and any seasonal tendencies that might be occurring. (5 marks)
Apply appropriate forecasting techniques and compare the forecasting performances. Choose the best model to generate forecasts for year 2019. (40 marks)
Discuss how these forecasts might be integrated into the planning operations and policy makings at HBAT. (15 marks)
Quality of Regression analysis: starting with a general model; following a model selection procedure to reach the final model; fully interpreting the model estimation results; diagnostic checking. (30 marks)
Recommendationsto HBAT based on regression analysis (10 marks)

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