- What is the expected time to complete the project?
- Where is the slack in the project?
- What is the Critical Path?
- What the probability that the Critical Path will be completed on-time?
- What is the probability that the project will be completed on-time?
- What is the probability that the project may be completed sooner?
|Activity List for the PORTA-VAC Project|
|Note: This is not the correct map…|
|Activity||Description||Immediate Predecessor||Estimated Completion Time (weeks)|
|A||Develop product design||—||6||Instructions:|
|1. Draw the PERT Diagram on a separate sheet of paper based on this Activity List.|
|B||Plan market research||—||2|
|C||Prepare routing||A||3||2. Check the next sheet (“Project Flow“) for a solution and compare your work!|
|E||Prepare marketing brochure||A, B||3||3. Continue to the “Project Flow” sheet for further instructions.|
|F||Prepare cost estimate||C||2|
|G||Do preliminary design testing||D||3|
|H||Complete Market survey||B, E||4|
|I||Prepare pricing and forecast report||H||2|
|J||Prepare final report||F, G, I||2|
|Earliest Start||Activity Name||Earliest Finish||Slack||1||Z||3||3|
|Latest Start||Activity Duration||Latest Finish||4||3||6|
|Instructions: (see class notes for more details)||Questions:|
|Note: Activity Times are listed on the Activity List.|
|1. What is the expected completion time?|
|Step 1:: Insert the activity times under the activity names, “Actitivity Duration” as shown in the Format example above.|
|Step 2: Perform a forward pass — computing the Earilest Start and Earliest Finish times. Insert these in the TOP row.|
|Step 3: Perform a backward pass — computing the Latest Finish and Latest Start times. Insert these in the BOTTOM row.||2. Where is the Critical Path?|
|Step 4 Calculated the slack time for each activity. Insert this in the YELLOW box.||(describe by the series of letter for the activities on the Crtical Path)|
|Step 5: Determine the Critical Path.|
|Then, proceed to the next sheet to determine the RISK of the project.|
|Complete the tables below to answer the questions to the right.||1. What is the probability that this project will be completed within the goal of 20 weeks?|
|2. What is the probability that this project will be completed faster, within 19 weeks?|
|Data given by Porta-Vac Production Leaders||(see formulas and hints in green to the right)||A-E-H-I-J||A-C-F-J||A-D-G-J||B-H-I-J|
|Activity||Optimistic (a)||Most Probable (m)||Pessimistic (b)||Expected Completion Time (weeks)||Variance (weeks^2)||Slack (weeks)||On critical Path? (Yes=1 or No=blank)||Path 1 (Yes=1 or No=blank)||Path 2 (Yes=1 or No=blank)||Path 3 (Yes=1 or No=blank)||Path 4 (Yes=1 or No=blank)|
|Expected completion time=||weeks||(Hint: Try =SUMPRODUCT(Path,Expected Completion Time)|
|Goal to complete =||20||weeks||Path variance=||weeks-squared||(Hint: Same =SUMPRODUCT as above)|
|Path StDev=||weeks||(Hint: take the square-root of the variance. =SQRT(x)|
|Probability to complete within Goal =||Note: P = NORM.S.DIST(z-score), as Standard-Normal Distribution has a Mean=0 and StDev=1.|
|Probability to complete Critical Path on-time =|
|Probability to complete all paths by the goal =||Note: All tasks must be completed on time, not just the Critical Path. Therefore, P(all) = P1 * P2 * P3 * P4|
|Hint: Change the goal in cell D21, then paste the answers above.|
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Project Management Using Excel