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  1. What is the expected time to complete the project?
  2. Where is the slack in the project?
  3. What is the Critical Path?
  4. What the probability that the Critical Path will be completed on-time?
  5. What is the probability that the project will be completed on-time?
  6. What is the probability that the project may be completed sooner?

Activity List

Porta-Vac Project
Activity List for the PORTA-VAC Project
Note: This is not the correct map…
ActivityDescriptionImmediate PredecessorEstimated Completion Time (weeks)
ADevelop product design6Instructions:
1. Draw the PERT Diagram on a separate sheet of paper based on this Activity List.
BPlan market research2
CPrepare routingA32. Check the next sheet (“Project Flow“) for a solution and compare your work!
DBuild prototypeA5
EPrepare marketing brochureA, B33. Continue to the “Project Flow” sheet for further instructions.
FPrepare cost estimateC2
GDo preliminary design testingD3
HComplete Market surveyB, E4
IPrepare pricing and forecast reportH2
JPrepare final reportF, G, I2

Project Flow

Porta-Vac Project
Earliest StartActivity NameEarliest FinishSlack1Z33
Latest StartActivity DurationLatest Finish436
Instructions: (see class notes for more details)Questions:
Note: Activity Times are listed on the Activity List.
1. What is the expected completion time?
Step 1:: Insert the activity times under the activity names, “Actitivity Duration” as shown in the Format example above.
Step 2: Perform a forward pass — computing the Earilest Start and Earliest Finish times. Insert these in the TOP row.
Step 3: Perform a backward pass — computing the Latest Finish and Latest Start times. Insert these in the BOTTOM row.2. Where is the Critical Path?
Step 4 Calculated the slack time for each activity. Insert this in the YELLOW box.(describe by the series of letter for the activities on the Crtical Path)
Step 5: Determine the Critical Path.
Then, proceed to the next sheet to determine the RISK of the project.

Project Risk

Porta-Vac Project
Complete the tables below to answer the questions to the right.1. What is the probability that this project will be completed within the goal of 20 weeks?
2. What is the probability that this project will be completed faster, within 19 weeks?
Data given by Porta-Vac Production Leaders(see formulas and hints in green to the right)A-E-H-I-JA-C-F-JA-D-G-JB-H-I-J
ActivityOptimistic (a)Most Probable (m)Pessimistic (b)Expected Completion Time (weeks)Variance (weeks^2)Slack (weeks)On critical Path? (Yes=1 or No=blank)Path 1 (Yes=1 or No=blank)Path 2 (Yes=1 or No=blank)Path 3 (Yes=1 or No=blank)Path 4 (Yes=1 or No=blank)
Expected completion time=weeks(Hint: Try =SUMPRODUCT(Path,Expected Completion Time)
Goal to complete =20weeksPath variance=weeks-squared(Hint: Same =SUMPRODUCT as above)
Path StDev=weeks(Hint: take the square-root of the variance. =SQRT(x)
Probability to complete within Goal =Note: P = NORM.S.DIST(z-score), as Standard-Normal Distribution has a Mean=0 and StDev=1.
Probability to complete Critical Path on-time =
Probability to complete all paths by the goal =Note: All tasks must be completed on time, not just the Critical Path. Therefore, P(all) = P1 * P2 * P3 * P4
Hint: Change the goal in cell D21, then paste the answers above.

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